Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (20:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
To carry out a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 4 July 2025, it is essential to look at the price data provided, the major economic news and possible trends and forecasts. Here is a detailed analysis:

### Current trend

- GBP/USD opened at 1.36511 and closed slightly lower at 1.36380. This indicates a slight downtrend for the day.
- Intraday fluctuations saw a high of 1.36812 and a low of 1.36345, showing some volatility but within a fairly narrow range.
- General trend:** Closing below the opening price suggests downward pressure, possibly influenced by economic or geopolitical factors.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo:** This news could signal a rise in trade tensions, which could affect market sentiment and increase volatility. Investors could turn to safe havens, which could have a negative impact on sterling against the US dollar.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty:** Strong jobs data could strengthen sterling, but uncertainty surrounding Bank of England (BoE) policy could limit these gains. If the BoE remains hesitant about rate hikes, this could weigh on the pound.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open:** Low trading volumes can lead to exaggerated price movements. Risk assets are making gains, but low volumes indicate that price movements may not be representative of a sustainable trend.

### Short-Term Forecasts

- Bullish Scenario:** If sterling manages to benefit from strong employment data and BoE uncertainty eases, we could see a recovery towards resistance levels around 1.36800. A reduction in trade tensions could also support a rise.

- Bearish scenario:** If trade tensions intensify and the BoE remains unclear about its intentions, downward pressure could increase, with the potential for a drop below the 1.36300 support level. Increased risk aversion could also strengthen the US dollar.

- Factors to Watch:** Traders will want to keep an eye on BoE statements, developments in global trade tensions, and other key economic indicators in the UK and US that could influence the future direction of GBP/USD.

In conclusion, although GBP/USD is currently in a slight downtrend, future economic and political developments will play a crucial role in determining its future direction. Traders should remain cautious and attentive to economic news and political decisions.