XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-31
Opening : 3292.2
Higher up: 3321.34
Below: 3288.88
Closing : 3303.39

Economic news :
GBP/USD Hits Lows: Weak UK Data and a Strong US Dollar Weigh on the Pound
GBP/USD, AUD/USD August Outlook: Seasonality Points to Renewed Downside Pressure
Strong Data Dims Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Detailed analysis:
Today, 31 July 2025, the gold market (XAUUSD) is trending slightly upwards after closing at 3303.39, marking a recovery from the day's lows. The key supports and resistances to watch are around 3288 (support) and 3325 (resistance) respectively. Recent volatility remains moderate, but fluctuations in the US dollar, bolstered by solid economic data, are introducing potential downward pressure on gold. Economic tensions in the UK, with a falling GBP/USD, are adding a complex dynamic to the market.

### Potential Scenarios :

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- Assumption:** Gold breaks through resistance at 3325, continuing its uptrend.
- Invalidation:** A break below 3288 would invalidate this scenario.
- Levels to watch:** Above 3325, a target of 3350 could be considered.
- Traps to avoid:** Watch for US economic announcements that could strengthen the dollar and reverse the trend.

2. **Range scenario:**
- Hypothesis:** Gold oscillates between 3288 and 3325, with no clear direction.
- Corners:** Support at 3288 and resistance at 3325.
- Levels to watch:** A significant break of these limits could signal a directional movement.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Do not rush to act on break signals without clear confirmation.

3. **Cashier scenario:**
- Assumption:** Gold falls below support at 3288, driven by a stronger US dollar.
- Invalidation:** A return above 3325 would invalidate this scenario.
- Levels to watch:** Below 3288, a pullback to 3260 could be envisaged.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Ignore technical rebounds that could trap short sellers.

### Risk Management Advice :

- Money Management:** Make sure you only risk a small percentage of your capital on each position to limit potential losses.
- Confirmation and Patience:** Wait for clear confirmation of key levels before taking positions to avoid overtrading and false signals.

To sum up, although gold is showing a slight uptrend, external influences, notably a strengthening US dollar, call for extra caution and rigorous risk management.