XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-19 (23:52)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-19
Opening : 3347.6
Higher up: 3348.2
Below: 3345.9
Closing : 3346.6

Economic news :
Is the GBP/USD Pullback Just Technical Noise or a Deeper Bullish Reversal?
GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK Data Dampens BoE Rate Cut Bets
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover

Detailed analysis:
Today, the gold market (XAUUSD) is showing a slight downtrend, closing lower at 3346.6. Key levels to watch include immediate support around 3345.0 and resistance near 3348.5. Recent volatility remains moderate, but traders should remain alert to potential fluctuations caused by macroeconomic and geopolitical events.

The recent trend in the US dollar, affected by Waller's comments, has created a 'hangover' in the market, influencing the dynamics of gold. At the same time, UK economic data has reduced expectations of a rate cut by the BoE, which could indirectly influence the dollar and, consequently, gold. On the geopolitical front, no major news currently seems to be disrupting the gold market.

**Potential scenarios:**

1. **Bullish scenario:** If gold manages to break through resistance at 3348.5 with sustained volume, a move towards 3352.0 could be envisaged. This scenario would be invalidated if gold broke back below 3345.0. Investors should keep an eye on technical indicators and economic news that could support this move.

2. **Range scenario:** A consolidation between 3345.0 and 3348.5 is possible if the dollar's movements stabilise. Traders should be on the lookout for false breaks of these limits, which could lead to losses if not managed correctly.

3. **Bearish scenario:** A clear break below support at 3345.0 could pave the way for a fall towards 3342.0. This scenario would be invalidated if gold breaks back above 3348.5. Traders should keep an eye on US economic announcements, which could strengthen the dollar, pushing gold lower.

**Risk management advice:**

- Position size management:** Adjust the size of your positions according to current volatility and identified key levels, to minimise risk in the event of sudden adverse movements.

- Before taking a position, wait for clear confirmation via technical signals or reliable economic news to avoid being trapped by misleading market movements.

To sum up, although the gold market currently appears to be trending downwards, caution is still called for given the current economic and geopolitical influences.