Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (16:50)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
To carry out a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 4 July 2025, we need to consider several key elements, including price movements, economic indicators and the impact of recent news.

### Current trend
The GBP/USD pair fell slightly, closing at 1.36380 after opening at 1.36511. The high for the day was 1.36812, indicating some volatility and attempts to recover during the day. However, closing below the opening level suggests persistent downward pressure.

### Impact of Economic News
1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo**: News about Trump's tariffs may have an indirect effect on GBP/USD by increasing risk aversion in global markets. Investors could turn to safer assets, which could strengthen the US dollar and weigh on the GBP.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty** : Strong UK jobs data could potentially support the pound, but uncertainty over Bank of England (BoE) policy could limit this effect. If the BoE is seen to be reluctant to adjust interest rates, this could continue to put negative pressure on the pound.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open** : Rising risk assets may indicate some confidence in the market, but low trading volumes suggest the moves could be exaggerated and unreliable. This could lead to a volatile open the following week, influencing GBP/USD volatility.

### Short-Term Forecasts
- Bullish scenario**: If UK economic news continues to show improvement, particularly in the employment sector, and if the BoE adopts a clearer stance on its monetary policy intentions, the pound could strengthen. A break above 1.36812 could signal a return to an uptrend.

- Bearish scenario**: If the uncertainty surrounding the BoE persists and international trade tensions intensify, the dollar could continue to strengthen as a safe-haven asset, pushing the GBP/USD to new lows. A break below 1.36345 could signal a further decline.

- Neutral scenario**: The market could remain indecisive if volumes remain low and investors wait for more clarity on economic policies. In this case, GBP/USD could consolidate in a narrow range around current levels.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by a variety of economic and political factors, and the next few sessions will largely depend on developments on these fronts. Traders should keep a close eye on economic announcements and BoE statements to adjust their strategies.