Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (02:05)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
**Full analysis of the GBP/USD Forex market**.

**Date:** 2025-07-04

**Summary of market data:**

- Opening:** 1.36511
- Higher:** 1.36812
- Lowest:** 1.36345
- Closing:** 1.36380

**Detailed analysis:**

**1. Current trend:**

The GBP/USD pair has shown some volatility over the course of the day, with a slight downward bias. Opening at 1.36511 and closing at 1.36380 indicate a modest downtrend. The fact that the high (1.36812) was reached but the close was closer to the low (1.36345) suggests selling pressure at the end of the session.

**2. impact of economic news:**

Recent economic news has had a significant impact on the GBP/USD pair:

- Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo:** Trade tensions resulting from Trump's new taxes may increase uncertainty in the markets, adversely affecting currencies considered riskier, such as sterling. This may contribute to the downward pressure on the pair.

- GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty:** Strong UK jobs data would normally support the pound, but uncertainty surrounding the future policies of the Bank of England (BoE) seems to dominate. If the BoE remains ambiguous about its intentions regarding interest rates or other monetary policy measures, this could weigh on the pound.

- Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open:** Although risk assets have recorded gains, low liquidity could lead to exaggerated price movements early next week. This could add further volatility to the GBP/USD pair, making forecasts more uncertain.

**3. Short-term forecasts:**

- Bullish scenario:** If the BoE clarifies its monetary policy intentions in a favourable manner or if trade tensions ease, the pound could benefit from a rebound. A return above 1.36812 would reinforce this scenario.

- Bearish scenario:** If trade tensions intensify or if the BoE remains vague, pressure could push the GBP/USD pair below the 1.36345 support level. A break below this level could pave the way for further declines.

- Neutral scenario:** In the event that economic and political news fails to provide a clear direction, the pair could consolidate around current levels, while awaiting new catalysts.

**Conclusion:**

The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by complex economic and political factors. Traders should keep a close eye on developments concerning BoE policy and global trade relations. Volatility could persist, especially with reduced trading volumes around bank holidays.