Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (15:55)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
For a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 4 July 2025, we need to look at several aspects, including price movements, major economic news and short-term forecasts. Here is a detailed analysis:

### Technical Analysis

1. **Price movements:**
- Opening:** 1.36511
- Higher:** 1.36812
- Lowest:** 1.36345
- Closing:** 1.36380

GBP/USD opened at 1.36511 and closed slightly lower at 1.36380. The fact that the close was close to the day's low suggests selling pressure towards the end of the session. The narrow range between the high and low indicates a day of low volatility.

2. **Current trend:**
- The trend is slightly bearish on this particular day, as shown by the close below the opening level. However, movements remain relatively contained, which may indicate a period of waiting or consolidation.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo:**
- Trade tensions, particularly news of Trump's tariffs, may create uncertainty in the markets. This uncertainty may strengthen the US dollar as investors seek safe-haven assets, putting downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty:**
- Strong UK employment data would normally strengthen sterling. However, uncertainty surrounding Bank of England (BoE) policy seems to be weighing more heavily, which could explain the pound's relative weakness.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open:**
- Risky assets continue to advance, but low trading volumes may lead to erratic movements at the opening of the next session. This could mean that GBP/USD could see increased volatility early next week.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Possible scenarios:**
- Bullish scenario:** If the Bank of England clarifies its policy in order to reassure the markets, combined with a possible easing of trade tensions, the pound could strengthen, pushing GBP/USD higher.
- Bearish scenario:** If political and economic uncertainties persist, particularly those relating to tariffs and BoE monetary policy, downward pressure could intensify, leading the pair to test lower support levels.

2. **Indicators to Monitor:**
- Upcoming UK economic announcements, including confidence indices and other macroeconomic data, as well as any communication from the BoE.
- Developments on the global trade front, which could influence global risk sentiment.

In conclusion, although the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of weakness in the short term, the future will depend very much on future economic and political developments. It is crucial for traders to keep abreast of economic news and monitor technical indicators to adjust their strategies accordingly.