Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (11:02)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Date: 2025-07-04

#### Summary of Market Data
- Opening:** 1.36511
- Higher:** 1.36812
- Lowest:** 1.36345
- Closing:** 1.36380

#### Major Economic News
1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo**: Trade tensions, exacerbated by further tariff announcements, have impacted global financial markets, increasing volatility and influencing currency movements, including GBP/USD.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty** : The GBP/USD pair was influenced by better-than-expected jobs data in the UK, which strengthened sterling. However, persistent uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's future policies tempered the gains.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open**: Despite gains on risk assets, low trading volumes could lead to erratic movements at the opening of the next session, potentially impacting the GBP/USD pair.

#### Detailed Analysis

##### Current Trend
The GBP/USD pair is showing a downward trend, closing slightly below its opening level. This indicates a correction after earlier gains, probably in response to UK employment data and political uncertainty.

##### Impact of Economic News
- Trade tensions**: Tariff announcements have created uncertainty in the markets, which generally tends to strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven, exerting downward pressure on GBP/USD.
- Employment Data**: The release of strong UK employment data temporarily supported sterling, but the lack of clarity over future decisions by the Bank of England limited this positive momentum.
- Low Volumes**: The low trading volumes observed could lead to increased volatility, making the market susceptible to sudden movements at the next open.

##### Short-Term Forecasts
- Bullish scenario**: If trade tensions ease and the Bank of England gives positive indications on its future policies, the GBP could strengthen, pushing the GBP/USD pair higher.
- Bearish scenario**: In the event of increased trade tensions or negative signals from the BoE, the pair could continue its downward correction, potentially testing support around 1.3600.
- Increased volatility**: Current low volumes suggest increased caution, as erratic movements could occur, especially early next week.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD market is currently influenced by complex economic and political factors, requiring continuous monitoring of both local and international developments in order to anticipate future movements.