Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (23:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36537
Below: 1.36495
Closing : 1.36520

Economic news :
Markets Digest The Strong Jobs Data From U.S.
Futures Coiled At Record High Ahead Of Closely Watched Jobs Report
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady awaiting US jobs report

Detailed analysis:
For a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 4 July 2025, let's look at the various elements mentioned and analyse their potential impact.

### Technical Analysis

1. **Market data:**
- Opening:** 1.36511
- Higher:** 1.36537
- Lowest:** 1.36495
- Closing:** 1.36520

The data indicates low intraday volatility, with a variation of just 42 pips between the high and low. The close slightly above the open suggests slight upward pressure, but the difference is minimal, indicating a relatively calm trading day.

2. **Current trend:**
- The trend appears to be neutral to slightly upwards, but the movement is limited. The absence of any significant movement could indicate consolidation, or that the markets are waiting for external catalysts, such as economic news.

### Fundamental Analysis

1. **Impact of economic news:**
- The major economic news concerns US employment data, which is often a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions.
- The market seems to be awaiting the results of the employment report, which explains the relative stability of the US dollar in this context.
- If employment data is strong, it could strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, disappointing data could weaken the dollar and strengthen sterling.

2. **Economic context:**
- The stability of GBP/USD could also be influenced by other economic factors, such as the monetary policies of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, as well as general economic conditions in the UK and the US.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- If US employment data comes in below expectations, this could weaken the dollar, allowing sterling to appreciate. In that case, we could see the pair test higher resistance levels.

2. **Bearish scenario:**
- In the event of strong employment data, the dollar could strengthen, pushing GBP/USD lower. Traders could then monitor key support levels to gauge the market's next direction.

3. **Neutral scenario:**
- If the data is in line with expectations, the pair could continue to trade in a narrow range, with traders waiting for further economic catalysts to take more defined positions.

### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by the expectation of US employment data results. Traders should keep a close eye on these results to assess the market's future direction. In the absence of significant movement, short-term trading strategies could focus on key support and resistance levels, while waiting for clearer catalysts.