Forex analysis - 2025-07-01 (16:51)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-01
Opening : 1.37281
Higher up: 1.37885
Below: 1.37030
Closing : 1.37150

Economic news :
S&P 500 Nears Exhaustion as Trade and Debt Risks Converge This Week
Gold Price Gains as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Powell Testimony
GBP/USD Outlook: Pound Surges as Q2 Wraps Up on a High Note

Detailed analysis:
To carry out a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 1 July 2025, we need to look at a number of aspects, including the current trend, the impact of economic news and short-term forecasts.

### Current trend

**Opening:** 1.37281
**Closing:** 1.37150
**Highest:** 1.37885
**Lowest:** 1.37030

The GBP/USD pair fell slightly at the close from its opening, indicating moderate downward pressure over the course of the day. The high at 1.37885 shows that there was an attempt to move higher, but it was not sustained. The low at 1.37030 suggests that support at this level was tested, but not significantly broken.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **S&P 500 Nears Exhaustion as Trade and Debt Risks Converge This Week:**
Trade and debt risks may create uncertainty in the markets, which could increase demand for safe-haven assets such as the US dollar. This could put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair if investors turn to the dollar for safety.

2. **Gold Price Gains as US Dollar Weakens Ahead of Powell Testimony:**
The weakness of the US dollar prior to Powell's testimony could be due to expectations of accommodative monetary policies from the Fed, which could theoretically support sterling. However, this will depend on the exact content of the testimony and market expectations.

3. **GBP/USD Outlook: Pound Surges as Q2 Wraps Up on a High Note :**
Sterling's positive performance at the end of the second quarter suggests increased confidence in the UK economy. If this trend continues, it could support the GBP/USD pair, especially if UK economic data continues to surprise positively.

### Short-Term Forecasts

**Possible scenarios:**

1. **Bullish scenario:**
If Powell's testimony indicates a more accommodative monetary policy, and if UK economic data continues to be robust, we could see GBP/USD rebound and retest resistance around 1.37885.

2. **Cashier script:**
If trade tensions increase or there are fresh concerns about debt, demand for the US dollar could rise. This could push the GBP/USD pair to revisit and potentially break support at 1.37030, paving the way for a further decline.

3. **Side scenario:**
If the economic news does not provide a clear direction, the pair could move in a narrow range between 1.37030 and 1.37885, while waiting for clearer catalysts.

### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently showing slight downward pressure, but short-term economic and political developments will play a crucial role in its future direction. Traders should keep a close eye on Fed statements, global trade tensions and UK economic data to adjust their positions accordingly.