Forex analysis - 2025-06-27 (15:05)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-27
Opening : 1.37275
Higher up: 1.37524
Below: 1.36827
Closing : 1.37130

Economic news :
Markets Wait For PCE Data
Major currencies not up to much to start the session
GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness

Detailed analysis:
For a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 27 June 2025, let's take a look at the different aspects:

### Technical Analysis

1. **Current trend:**
- The GBP/USD pair opened at 1.37275 and closed slightly lower at 1.37130, indicating slight downward pressure over the course of the day.
- The high for the day was 1.37524, and the low 1.36827, showing some volatility but no significant break in either direction.
- The fact that the close is below the open could suggest a slight downtrend on this particular day.

2. **Technical indicators:**
- Moving averages:** If the short-term moving average (e.g. MA 10 days) is above the long-term average (MA 50 days), this would indicate a general uptrend.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index):** An RSI above 70 would indicate that the pair is overbought, while an RSI below 30 would indicate that it is oversold.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):** A bullish or bearish cross could provide further indication of future direction.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **Markets Wait For PCE Data:**
- The wait for PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data suggests that the markets are in wait-and-see mode. PCE is a key inflation indicator used by the US Federal Reserve to gauge inflationary pressures.
- Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen the US dollar, while lower inflation could cause it to fall.

2. **Major currencies not up to much to start the session :**
- This news indicates a lack of significant movement among the major currencies, which could explain the limited volatility seen in GBP/USD.

3. **GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness :**
- This news highlights a recent strength in sterling against the US dollar, reaching 3-year highs. This could be due to widespread dollar weakness, potentially caused by expectations of accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- If PCE data suggests moderate inflation, this could keep pressure on the dollar, allowing GBP/USD to continue testing resistance around the recent high of 1.37524.
- A hold or break above this level could pave the way for new highs.

2. **Bearish scenario:**
- If the PCE data shows higher than expected inflation, this could strengthen the dollar, pushing the pair to test support around 1.36827 or lower.
- A break below this level could signal a deeper correction.

3. **Factors to watch:**
- Speeches or indications from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy.
- Developments in UK economic data, such as growth, employment and inflation, which could influence sterling.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair appears to be influenced by global economic factors and monetary policy expectations. Traders should keep a close eye on key economic data and central bank statements to guide their trading decisions.