Forex analysis - 2025-06-27 (23:54)

June 28, 2025

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-27
Opening : 1.37275
Higher up: 1.37524
Below: 1.36827
Closing : 1.37130

Economic news :
Markets Wait For PCE Data
Major currencies not up to much to start the session
GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness

Detailed analysis:
For a complete analysis of the Forex market, particularly for the GBP/USD pair on 27 June 2025, here are the key points to consider:

### Price Summary
- Open:** 1.37275
- Highest:** 1.37524
- Lowest:** 1.36827
- Closing:** 1.37130

### Technical Analysis
1. **Current trend:**
- The GBP/USD pair is showing a slight downtrend, closing below its opening price.
- Volatility is moderate, with a difference of around 0.007 between the day's highs and lows.
- Immediate support and resistance levels appear to be around 1.36800 (support) and 1.37500 (resistance).

2. **Technical indicators:**
- Moving Averages:** If the short-term moving average (e.g. 50 days) is above the long-term average (e.g. 200 days), this could indicate an underlying uptrend.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index):** An RSI close to 70 would indicate that the pair is in overbought territory, while an RSI close to 30 would indicate oversold territory.

### Impact of Economic News
- Markets Wait For PCE Data:** Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data is crucial as it influences inflation expectations and the Fed's monetary policy. An unexpected rise could strengthen the dollar, having a negative impact on GBP/USD.
- Major Currencies not up to much to start the session:** This indicates some hesitation in the market, probably while awaiting key economic data.
- GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness:** Widespread weakness in the US dollar has helped the GBP/USD pair reach three-year highs. This could be due to underlying economic factors such as expectations of more accommodative monetary policies from the Fed.

### Short-Term Forecasts
1. **Bullish scenario:**
- If the PCE data are weaker than expected, this could reinforce the uptrend for GBP/USD, potentially pushing the pair back above 1.37500.
- Continued weakness in the US dollar would also support this scenario.

2. **Cashier script:**
- Stronger-than-expected PCE data could reverse the current trend, strengthening the dollar and pushing the pair towards support at 1.36800 or even lower.
- Announcements from the Bank of England suggesting a tighter monetary policy could also have a negative impact on the pair.

3. **Neutral scenario:**
- If there are no major surprises in the economic data, the pair could continue to trade in a narrow range between 1.36800 and 1.37500, unless further economic news upsets the balance.

### Conclusion
The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by expectations surrounding US economic data and the general perception of future monetary policy. Traders should keep a close eye on major economic announcements, particularly the PCE data, to anticipate short-term price movements.

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