Forex analysis - 2025-06-13 (19:57)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-13
Opening : 1.36148
Higher up: 1.36322
Below: 1.35163
Closing : 1.35700

Economic news :
Global FX Market Summary: Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facility, Gold, Fed, Currency Volatility, 13 June 2025
Cautious Sentiment In World Markets
GBP/USD: Bulls Lose Momentum After UK GDP Contracts

Detailed analysis:
The analysis of the Forex market for the GBP/USD pair on 13 June 2025, taking into account the data provided and the major economic news, is as follows:

### Technical Analysis

1. **Current trend:**
- GBP/USD opened at 1.36148 and closed at 1.35700, indicating a downtrend for the day.
- The high of 1.36322 and the low of 1.35163 show moderate volatility, but the close below the opening level signals selling pressure.
- Buyers (bulls) are clearly losing momentum, partly because of the unfavourable economic news about the UK.

2. **Technical levels:**
- Resistance:** The immediate resistance level is around 1.36322, the high for the day.
- Support:** Key support is at around 1.35163, the day's low.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **UK GDP contraction:**
- The contraction in UK GDP is having a negative impact on sterling, which is a major factor in the fall in GBP/USD.
- Investors may perceive this contraction as a sign of economic weakness, prompting a reassessment of long positions in the pound.

2. **Geopolitical context:**
- Geopolitical tensions, in particular the Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, are increasing uncertainty on world markets.
- This uncertainty could contribute to risk aversion, prompting investors to turn to safe havens such as the US dollar.

3. **Currency volatility:**
- Increased volatility on the currency markets, partly due to expectations of Fed decisions, could put further pressure on sterling against the dollar.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Cashier scenario:**
- If UK economic data continues to disappoint and geopolitical tensions intensify, the pair could test support at 1.35163. A break below this level could pave the way for a fall towards 1.34500.

2. **Bullish scenario:**
- In the event of geopolitical stabilisation and unexpectedly positive economic data from the UK, the pair could bounce back towards resistance at 1.36322. A break above it could target 1.37000.

3. **Fed influence:**
- Any indication from the Fed of monetary policy adjustments could influence the dollar and, by extension, GBP/USD. A more accommodative approach from the Fed could support a rebound in the pair.

### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure due to economic and geopolitical factors. Investors should keep a close eye on economic developments in the UK and international tensions, as these factors will play a crucial role in the pair's future performance. It is advisable to adopt a cautious approach, bearing in mind the potential for increased volatility on the markets.