Forex analysis - 2025-06-13 (23:54)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-13
Opening : 1.36148
Higher up: 1.36322
Below: 1.35163
Closing : 1.35700

Economic news :
Global FX Market Summary: Israel strikes Iran's nuclear facility, Gold, Fed, Currency Volatility, 13 June 2025
Cautious Sentiment In World Markets
GBP/USD: Bulls Lose Momentum After UK GDP Contracts

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Context and Current Trends
The GBP/USD pair showed some volatility during the session of 13 June 2025, opening at 1.36148 and closing just below 1.35700. This indicates bearish pressure, with a low recorded at 1.35163. The general trend seems to be downwards, reinforced by recent economic and geopolitical news.

#### Impact of Economic News

1. **Geopolitical conflict:** Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has created significant geopolitical uncertainty, increasing volatility on currency markets. In such scenarios, investors tend to turn to safe havens such as gold, which can weaken currencies such as sterling against the US dollar.

2. **Cautious Market Sentiment:** General sentiment on global markets is cautious, probably due to geopolitical uncertainty and economic concerns. Cautious sentiment tends to favour the US dollar, seen as a safe haven, over sterling.

3. **Recent economic data shows a contraction in UK GDP, which is weighing on sterling. A contracting economy may cause investors to move away from the pound, putting further downward pressure on GBP/USD.

4. **Fed policies:** Discussions surrounding the monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to influence the foreign exchange market. Any indication of tighter monetary policy on the part of the Fed could strengthen the US dollar, accentuating the fall in the GBP/USD pair.

#### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Bearish scenario:** If the geopolitical situation worsens or if UK economic data continues to disappoint, GBP/USD could continue to fall, potentially testing new support around 1.3500.

2. **Neutral scenario:** If geopolitical tensions stabilise and UK economic data are better than expected, the pair could consolidate between 1.3550 and 1.3600, pending further guidance.

3. **Bullish scenario:** A rapid easing of tensions or indications of more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed could strengthen the pound, pushing the pair towards resistance at 1.3650 and beyond.

### Conclusion
The GBP/USD pair is currently under pressure due to unfavourable geopolitical and economic factors. Investors should keep a close eye on geopolitical developments and key economic indicators to assess future movements in the pair. The Fed's decisions and the markets' reaction to geopolitical tensions will be crucial in determining short-term direction.