Forex analysis - 2025-05-02 (08:50)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-05-02
Opening : 1.32713
Higher up: 1.33306
Below: 1.32604
Closing : 1.32640

Economic news :
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Strong NFP Justifies Cautious Fed
Markets React To Hints Of Trade Talks Between U.S. And China
Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls After China Hints At Trade Talks

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Context
The Forex market for the GBP/USD pair has recently shown some volatility, with the pair opening at 1.32713, making a high of 1.33306, making a low of 1.32604, and closing at 1.32640. These movements reflect a relatively stable market, but with some downward pressure, as evidenced by the close near the day's low.

#### Major Economic News

1. **NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)** : The US jobs report, or NFP, showed strong figures, which could justify a cautious approach from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). A strong NFP report tends to support the US dollar, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.

2. **US-China trade talks** : Markets reacted positively to indications of potential trade talks between the US and China. An easing of trade tensions may stimulate risk appetite, which could weaken the US dollar in the short term if investors turn to riskier assets.

#### Technical Analysis

- Current Trend**: GBP/USD is showing a slight downtrend, as suggested by the close near the day's lows. This could indicate persistent downward pressure, especially if nearby support levels fail to hold.

- Key Technical Levels** :
- Resistance**: The 1.33306 level, which was the day's high, will serve as key resistance to watch. A breach of this level could signal a bullish reversal.
- Support: The 1.32604 level, corresponding to the day's low, is immediate support. A break below this level could lead to further downside.

#### Impact of Economic News

Recent news on NFP and trade talks between the US and China have had a mixed impact. While the NFP report supports the dollar, the trade talks may lead to increased volatility with moves that could temporarily reverse the trend.

#### Short-Term Forecasts

- Bullish scenario**: If the trade talks result in concrete progress, and investors perceive reduced risk in the market, the pound could strengthen against the dollar, retesting resistance at 1.33306.

- Bearish scenario**: If US economic data continues to outperform expectations, boosting the dollar's appeal, the pair could break support at 1.32604 and move lower.

#### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by major economic factors in the United States, notably the NFP report, as well as geopolitical developments. Traders should keep a close eye on technical levels and economic news to assess the market's future direction. Decisions by the Fed and progress in trade talks between the US and China will be key elements in determining the pair's short-term trajectory.