Forex analysis - 2025-03-26 (14:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-03-26
Opening : 1.29450
Higher up: 1.29490
Below: 1.29398
Closing : 1.29430

Economic news :
US Dollar Holds Firm as Markets Await Next Week's Tariff Decision
Sterling eases after cooler UK inflation but outlook remains challenging
UK February CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### 1. **Summary of Price Movements**.
- Open:** 1.29450
- Higher:** 1.29490
- Lowest:** 1.29398
- Closing:** 1.29430

The GBP/USD pair has shown relatively low volatility over the period analysed, with a very narrow range of movement. The opening and closing levels are close together, indicating a market that is indecisive or waiting for new catalysts to take a clearer direction.

#### 2. **Major Economic News** (in French)
- The dollar remains strong as markets await a decision on tariffs next week. This expectation may lead to some caution in GBP/USD movements, as investors keep a close eye on any news concerning US trade policies.

- Sterling:** The pound weakened after inflation came in below expectations. February's inflation rate was 2.8 % against a forecast of 3.0 %, which could reduce the pressure on the Bank of England to raise short-term interest rates. This could limit support for sterling in the immediate term.

#### 3. **Detailed Analysis

- The GBP/USD pair is currently in a consolidation phase. Economic uncertainty and expectations regarding US trade policy decisions are playing a crucial role in limiting major movements.

- Impact of Economic News:**
- Weak inflation data in the UK weighed on sterling, reducing expectations of a rate rise by the Bank of England. This contributed to the downward pressure on the GBP.
- The firmness of the US dollar, supported by the expectation of tariff decisions, is adding further downward pressure to the pair.

#### 4. **Short term forecast**.

- Bullish scenario:** If the US tariff decision is seen as positive for world trade or if better than expected UK economic data is released, the pair could retest resistance around 1.29500 or above.

- Bearish scenario:** In the event of disappointing news on tariffs or weak UK economic data, the pair could fall below immediate support at 1.29400, with the prospect of a drop towards 1.29350.

- Neutral scenario:** In the absence of any significant news, the pair could continue to oscillate in a narrow range around the current zone, as investors wait for more clarity on economic policies.

In conclusion, GBP/USD is currently being influenced by external factors, including US economic policy decisions and UK economic data. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic news to anticipate potential price movements.