Forex analysis - 2025-03-04 (12:52)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-03-04
Opening : 1.26985
Higher up: 1.27407
Below: 1.26783
Closing : 1.27380

Economic news :
Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: US data sags, tariffs loom and OPEC+ pumps more
Dollar Climbs Amidst Trade And Geopolitical Jitters
Positive Sentiment In World Markets

Detailed analysis:
For a full analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 4 March 2025, we will look at the key elements provided, including price movements, economic news and short-term forecasts.

### Technical Analysis

1. **Price movements:**
- Open:** 1.26985
- Highest:** 1.27407
- Lowest:** 1.26783
- Closing:** 1.27380

GBP/USD opened at 1.26985 and closed at 1.27380, showing some appreciation over the course of the day. The high at 1.27407 indicates resistance around this level, while the low at 1.26783 serves as intraday support.

2. **Trend:**
Closing above the opening level suggests an uptrend on this particular day. However, the relatively narrow amplitude of price movements may indicate a degree of market indecision or consolidation after a period of volatility.

### Fundamental Analysis

1. **Impact of Economic News:**
- US Data Sags:** Weaker US economic data may weigh on the dollar, providing support for GBP/USD.
- Tariffs Loom and OPEC+ Pumps More:** Concerns about tariffs may create uncertainty in the markets, which could strengthen the dollar as a safe haven. However, an OPEC+ production increase could have a limited impact on GBP/USD directly, but could influence overall market sentiment.
- Although the dollar has shown signs of strengthening due to trade and geopolitical concerns, the GBP/USD gain suggests that the negative impact of US economic data has been more significant.
- Positive Sentiment In World Markets:** Positive sentiment in world markets can boost risk appetite, which could benefit sterling against the dollar.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Possible scenarios:**
- Bullish scenario:** If US economic data continues to disappoint and sentiment remains positive, GBP/USD could continue to rise towards short-term resistance levels around 1.2750 to 1.2800.
- Bearish scenario:** In the event of escalating trade tensions or other major geopolitical events, the dollar could strengthen further, pushing the GBP/USD pair towards support levels around 1.2650.

2. **Factors to watch:**
- Major new economic publications from the United States and the United Kingdom.
- Developments in trade and geopolitical discussions.
- Changes in central bank monetary policies.

In conclusion, although the pair has shown some bullish strength during this session, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties persist, making short-term forecasts tricky. Continued monitoring of economic and political developments is essential to anticipate future movements in the GBP/USD pair.