XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-08-20
Opening : 3314.84
Higher up: 3320.69
Below: 3301.77
Closing : 3317.91

Economic news :
UK July CPI +3.8% vs +3.7% y/y expected
GBP/USD Consolidating Near 1.3500 With Neutral Momentum
FX option expiries for 20 August 10am New York cut

Detailed analysis:
The current trend for gold (XAUUSD) today is slightly bullish, closing at 3317.91, close to the opening levels. Key support and resistance levels are around 3300 and 3325 respectively. Recent volatility has been moderate, reflecting a market waiting for more substantial catalysts. Traders should keep an eye on potential risk areas around these levels, particularly if any sharp moves occur with the expiry of FX options at 10am New York time.

The US dollar remains relatively stable, but the recent release of higher-than-expected UK CPI at 3.8% could indirectly influence the gold market through its impact on monetary policy expectations. Although sterling is consolidating at around 1.3500 against the dollar, any increased volatility could also affect gold indirectly.

### Potential short-term scenarios :

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- Assumption:** If the price breaks through resistance at 3325 with significant volume.
- Level to watch:** 3340 as next target.
- Invalidation:** Back below 3310.
- Pitfall to avoid:** Don't rush into false bullish signals without confirmation from high volumes.

2. **Range scenario:**
- Assumption:** The price fluctuates between 3300 and 3325.
- Boundaries:** 3300 (support) and 3325 (resistance).
- Pitfall to avoid:** Avoid over-trading by anticipating breaks in a market with no clear direction.

3. **Bearish scenario:**
- Assumption:** If the price falls below support at 3300.
- Level to watch:** 3285 as next potential support.
- Invalidation:** Rise above 3320.
- Traps to avoid:** Do not sell hastily on a false break to the downside.

### Risk management advice :

1. **Money Management:** Set strict stop-losses to limit potential losses, particularly in a market where volatility can rise sharply.

2. **Wait for confirmation:** Before taking a position, wait for solid confirmation of price movements, particularly when critical levels are broken. This reduces the risk of entering on false signals.

In short, stay alert to key levels and adjust your strategies as market conditions change, while keeping an eye on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments that could influence gold.