XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-14 (23:49)

July 13, 2025

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-14
Opening : 3356.92
Higher up: 3371.010010
Below: 3356.92
Closing : 3368.5

Economic news :
U.S. Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Tariff Speculations
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady, equities down awaiting trade developments
Tariff Turbulence Haunts Markets

Detailed analysis:
Today, the gold market (XAUUSD) showed a slightly bullish trend, closing at 3368.5 after opening at 3356.92. Key resistance currently lies around 3371, which is also the day's high, while major support is seen at 3356. Volatility remains moderate, but speculation over trade tariffs continues to weigh on the markets, indirectly influencing gold.

The US dollar has strengthened recently, fuelled by speculation about trade tariffs, which has a mixed impact on gold given its safe-haven status. US interest rates and inflation remain stable, offering no major surprises for the time being. However, caution remains the order of the day as investors await further developments on the trade front.

### Potential Short-Term Scenarios

1. **Bullish scenario:** If the XAUUSD manages to break through and hold above resistance at 3371, a continuation towards 3385 could be envisaged. This scenario would be invalidated if the price were to fall back below 3356, indicating a weakening of the bullish momentum. Keep an eye on movements in the dollar and announcements on tariffs to confirm this trend.

2. **Range Scenario:** The market could oscillate between the 3356 and 3371 bounds. In this case, traders should watch for false breakouts near these levels, particularly in the absence of significant economic news. Patience will be crucial in exploiting opportunities within this channel.

3. **Bearish scenario:** A break below 3356 could pave the way for a fall towards 3340. This scenario would be invalidated by a return above 3371, signalling market resilience. Traders should remain vigilant for possible technical rebounds and news influencing the dollar.

### Risk Management Advice

- Money Management:** Make sure you set strict stop-losses for each position to manage risk effectively, especially in a market influenced by uncertain geopolitical factors.

- Avoid overtrading:** Be cautious and avoid multiplying positions without clear confirmation of trends. Wait for solid signals before acting to avoid unnecessary losses.

Keep a close eye on macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, as they can quickly alter the current landscape of the gold market.

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