XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-21 (06:53)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-21
Opening : 3345
Higher up: 3369.72998
Below: 3345
Closing : 3367.99

Economic news :
Is the GBP/USD Pullback Just Technical Noise or a Deeper Bullish Reversal?
GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK Data Dampens BoE Rate Cut Bets
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover

Detailed analysis:
Today's session on the gold market (XAUUSD) shows a bullish trend, closing at 3367.99, close to the day's high. Recent volatility has been moderate, but gold seems to be benefiting from a slight weakness in the US dollar, influenced by Waller's recent comments which left the dollar in an uncertain situation. Key levels to watch include immediate support around 3345, while resistance lies near the intraday high at 3369.73.

On the macroeconomic front, the situation remains tense, with persistent inflation in the United States continuing to weigh on the Fed's interest rate decisions. However, expectations of a slowdown in rate rises could support gold. At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty, although less acute at present, remains an underlying factor that could influence gold prices.

### Potential short-term scenarios :

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- Conditions:** If the price breaks through resistance at 3369.73 with increased volume, a bullish continuation towards 3390 could materialise.
- Invalidation:** A return below 3345 would invalidate this bullish scenario.
- Levels to watch:** 3369.73 (resistance), 3390 (potential target).
- Trap to avoid:** Do not enter until there is clear confirmation beyond the resistance.

2. **Range scenario:**
- Conditions:** The price could move between 3345 and 3369.73 if no decisive break occurs.
- Corners:** 3345 (support), 3369.73 (resistance).
- Levels to watch:** The ends of the range to detect a possible break.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Avoid trading the extremes without confirmation of a bounce or breakout.

3. **Bearish scenario:**
- Conditions:** A break below 3345 could pave the way for a fall towards 3320.
- Invalidation:** A return above 3369.73 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
- Levels to watch:** 3345 (critical support), 3320 (potential target).
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Do not rush into short positions without a clear break in support.

### Risk management advice :

- Wait for confirmation:** Before taking a position, wait for clear confirmation of key levels to avoid false signals.
- Avoid overtrading:** Remain disciplined and avoid taking positions based on impulse movements. Concentrate on clear, well-defined set-ups.

To sum up, although gold is on an uptrend today, caution is still called for in view of macroeconomic uncertainty and potentially erratic movements in the dollar.