XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-21 (01:55)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-21
Opening : 3345
Higher up: 3354.62012
Below: 3345
Closing : 3353.04

Economic news :
Is the GBP/USD Pullback Just Technical Noise or a Deeper Bullish Reversal?
GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK Data Dampens BoE Rate Cut Bets
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover

Detailed analysis:
Today, the gold market (XAUUSD) is showing a slightly bullish trend, closing close to the day's highs at 3353.04. Immediate resistance is around 3355, while key support is at 3345. Volatility remains moderate, but traders should keep an eye on potential fluctuations due to recent movements in the US dollar, influenced by Waller's recent comments, which have weighed on the greenback.

Interest rates remain a crucial factor, although the latest UK data has lowered expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England, which could indirectly affect the dollar and gold. On the geopolitical front, no major tensions are currently affecting the gold market to any significant degree.

### Short-term scenarios

1. **Bullish scenario** :
- Level to watch**: A clear break above 3355 could open the way to 3365.
- Invalidation**: A return below 3345 would call this bullish scenario into question.
- Pitfall to avoid**: Don't get carried away by false bullish signals without volume confirmation.

2. **Range Scenario** :
- Corners**: 3345 support and 3355 resistance.
- Strategy**: Take advantage of oscillations between these levels as long as the price remains confined within this channel.
- Pitfall to avoid**: Avoid taking positions in the middle of the range without a clear reversal signal.

3. **Cashier scenario**:
- Level to watch**: A break below 3345 could trigger a fall towards 3335.
- Invalidation**: A return above 3355 would invalidate this scenario.
- Pitfall to avoid**: Do not sell hastily without confirmation that support has broken.

### Risk Management Advice

- Money Management**: Use well-defined stops and adjust the size of your positions to risk only a small percentage of your capital on each trade.
- Confirmation Expectation**: Before taking a position, make sure that the movement is supported by significant volume and aligned technical indicators.

To sum up, caution is the order of the day this session, with a close eye on movements in the dollar, which could influence gold's performance.