XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-19 (04:50)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-19
Opening : 3347.6
Higher up: 3348.2
Below: 3341.9
Closing : 3345.1

Economic news :
Is the GBP/USD Pullback Just Technical Noise or a Deeper Bullish Reversal?
GBP/USD Price Analysis: UK Data Dampens BoE Rate Cut Bets
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover

Detailed analysis:
The gold market (XAUUSD) is trending slightly lower today, pulling back after opening at 3347.6 to close at 3345.1. Recent volatility remains moderate, with a daily range between 3341.9 and 3348.2. Key levels to watch include immediate support around 3340 and resistance at 3350. Recent developments in the US dollar, influenced by a "Waller hangover", have contributed to this downward pressure, despite UK economic data that have dampened expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England.

### Potential scenarios

1. **Bullish scenario:** If the price manages to break through and hold above resistance at 3350, this could indicate a return to 3360. This scenario would be invalidated if the price were to fall back below 3340, which would signal persistent weakness.

2. **Range scenario:** The market could move sideways between 3340 and 3350, with oscillations due to the absence of major catalysts. A break outside these limits could trigger a more pronounced directional movement.

3. **Bearish scenario:** A clear break of support at 3340 could push gold towards 3330. This scenario would be invalidated if the market rises above 3350, suggesting a lack of conviction on the downside.

### Risk Management Advice

- Wait for confirmation:** Before taking a position, make sure there is clear confirmation that key levels have been broken, to avoid being trapped in false moves.

- Avoid overtrading:** In a market with moderate volatility, it is crucial not to multiply positions without good reason. Concentrate on clearly identified and well-defined opportunities.

In conclusion, although gold is showing slight downward pressure today, traders should remain attentive to market signals, particularly with regard to the behaviour of the dollar and macroeconomic influences.