XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-18 (18:55)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-18
Opening : 3303.71
Higher up: 3361.28003
Below: 3303.71
Closing : 3351.53003

Economic news :
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar gets a case of the Waller hangover
GBP/USD Edges Lower as UK Employment, Wage Growth Falls, US Retail Sales Shine
FX option expiries for 18 July 10am New York cut

Detailed analysis:
The gold market (XAUUSD) is clearly trending upwards today, closing at 3351.53, marking a clear rebound from its opening at 3303.71. Gold reached an intraday high of 3361.28, indicating significant buying pressure. The key support levels are at 3300, while the major resistance to watch is around 3365. Volatility remains high, boosted by recent moves in the US dollar, partly due to comments from FOMC member Christopher Waller and robust US retail sales data.

**Contextual elements:**
- The US dollar recently experienced temporary weakness, influenced by cautious positioning following Waller's comments.
- US inflation data continues to play a crucial role, with interest rates likely to remain high if the economy shows signs of overheating.
- Current geopolitical tensions, albeit in the background, are adding to uncertainty and underpinning demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

**Potential scenarios:**

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- Levels to watch:** A move above 3365 could open the way to 3400.
- Invalidation:** A fall below 3300 would call this scenario into question.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Don't rush into breaks without volumetric confirmation.

2. **Range scenario:**
- Corners:** Between 3300 and 3365.
- Strategy:** Buy on support and sell on resistance in the absence of major catalysts.
- Traps to avoid:** Avoid aggressive trades near the end of the range without a clear reversal signal.

3. **Bearish scenario:**
- Levels to watch:** A break of support at 3300 could lead to a fall towards 3250.
- Invalidation:** Back above 3365.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Beware of false break signals in the event of increased volatility.

**Risk management advice:**
1. Adopt a cautious approach with well-placed stops to protect your capital, especially in a context of high volatility.
2. Avoid overtrading by waiting for clear signals before entering the market, to reduce the risk of overexposure.

In conclusion, the current session calls for heightened vigilance, with potential opportunities in both directions of the market. Keep a close eye on economic data and statements by monetary policymakers, which could have an impact on the direction of gold.