XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-16 (11:57)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-16
Opening : 3324.3
Higher up: 3343.12988
Below: 3319.86
Closing : 3337.62012

Economic news :
GBP/USD Vulnerable as Trendline Break Sets Up Potential Drop
ANAX Capital commits to deliver smarter trading suite for UAE, global Investors
US Dollar: CPI Leaves Tariff Questions Unanswered With Fed on Hold for Now

Detailed analysis:
On 16 July 2025, gold (XAUUSD) is showing a bullish trend, closing at 3337.62 after opening at 3324.3. The precious metal flirted with a high of 3343.13, suggesting persistent buying pressure. The key support and resistance levels to watch are 3319.86 and 3343.13 respectively.

Recent volatility has been moderate, although the geopolitical situation and economic data in the United States continue to bring uncertainty. The US CPI has left questions about tariffs unanswered, while the Fed is keeping its key rates unchanged, which could influence the future direction of gold. In addition, the recent vulnerability of the GBP/USD could indirectly affect flows into the US dollar, and hence gold.

### Potential short-term scenarios :

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- Description:** If gold breaches and holds above resistance at 3343.13, this could pave the way for a continuation towards 3360.
- Invalidation:** Return under 3319.86.
- Levels to watch out for:** 3343.13, 3360.
- Traps to avoid:** Avoid entering resistance breaks that have not been confirmed by high volume.

2. **Range scenario:**
- Description:** Gold could hold between 3319.86 and 3343.13, with sideways movements dominated by economic uncertainty.
- Corners:** Support at 3319.86, resistance at 3343.13.
- Levels to watch out for:** 3319.86, 3343.13.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Do not over-trade in a market with no clear direction.

3. **Bearish scenario:**
- Description:** A dip below 3319.86 could signal weakness, with downside potential towards 3300.
- Invalidation:** Rebound above 3343.13.
- Levels to watch out for:** 3319.86, 3300.
- Pitfalls to avoid:** Selling aggressively without confirmation of a clear break in support.

### Practical advice on risk management :

- Patience and confirmation:** Wait for a candle to close above or below key levels to confirm a move before taking a position.
- Capital management:** Use an appropriate stop-loss for each position and do not risk more than 1-2% of your capital on a single trade to avoid overtrading.

To sum up, although the trend looks bullish today, a cautious approach is recommended, keeping an eye on the economic and geopolitical factors likely to influence the market.