XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-16 (06:50)

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-16
Opening : 3324.3
Higher up: 3340
Below: 3319.86
Closing : 3336.39

Economic news :
GBP/USD - Bears Looking for the Range Bottom
Markets Wait For U.S. CPI
GBP/USD Slides to Key Support as Pressure Mounts

Detailed analysis:
The gold market (XAUUSD) is currently in a slightly uptrend, with an upward movement seen at the close of 3336.39, after testing a low of 3319.86. Key levels to watch include support around 3320 and resistance near 3340. Volatility remains moderate, but could increase with the imminent release of US inflation data (CPI), a crucial factor for the gold market, often seen as a hedge against inflation.

Gold is also influenced by recent developments in the US dollar, which remains an important barometer. Pressure on the GBP/USD, with bears looking to test the bottom of the range, could indirectly affect gold through a potentially stronger dollar. US interest rates continue to play a dominant role, and any indication of a change in monetary policy could provoke sharp movements.

### Potential short-term scenarios :

1. **Bullish scenario:** If the price breaks above resistance at 3340, this could pave the way for an advance towards 3355. This scenario would be invalidated if the price breaks back below support at 3320. Traders should watch for signs of confirmation, such as increased buying volume, before committing themselves.

2. **Range scenario:** The price could oscillate between 3320 and 3340 if there is no strong impetus. In this case, traders can exploit the ends of this range for short trades. Beware of false break signals, particularly around economic releases.

3. **Bearish scenario:** A break below 3320 could lead to a fall towards 3300, which would be invalidated by a rise above 3340, suggesting a return of upward pressure. Traders should pay close attention to US economic data, which could trigger this breakout.

### Risk management advice :

- Money Management:** Set clear stop-loss levels commensurate with your risk tolerance to avoid excessive losses. Gold can move quickly, especially around major economic announcements.

- Wait for confirmation:** Before taking a position, wait for clear confirmation of key levels. This could include technical signals or volume confirmations that indicate a sustained movement.

In conclusion, remain vigilant in the face of expected economic announcements, and adjust your strategies in line with market developments to optimise your chances of success.