XAUUSD analysis - 2025-07-14 (14:49)

July 14, 2025

XAUUSD data (Gold/Dollar)
Date : 2025-07-14
Opening : 3356.92
Higher up: 3375.020020
Below: 3347.09
Closing : 3357.11011

Economic news :
Dollar holds steadier as the focus turns to key US data this week
Global Markets Show Mixed Signals: Asian Currencies Strengthen, JGB Yields Rise, European Futures Dip
U.S. Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Tariff Speculations

Detailed analysis:
Today, the gold market (XAUUSD) is showing a neutral trend with a slight consolidation around the opening level. The price oscillated between a high of 3375.02 and a low of 3347.09, closing at 3357.11, suggesting a lack of clear direction. Key levels to watch include immediate resistance at 3375 and support at 3347. Recent volatility remains moderate, but traders' attention is focused on upcoming US economic data, which could influence the dollar and, by extension, gold.

The US dollar held firm, influenced by speculation over trade tariffs and mixed signals from global markets. Japanese bond yields are rising, while European futures are falling, adding complexity to gold forecasts. On the geopolitical front, the absence of major events offers temporary stability, although trade tensions remain an underlying factor.

**Potential scenarios:**

1. **Bullish scenario:** If the XAUUSD breaks through resistance at 3375 with significant volume, a continuation towards 3390 is conceivable. However, this scenario would be invalidated by a return below 3347, which would indicate a lack of buying momentum. Traders should keep an eye on the US economic announcements to confirm this movement.

2. **Range scenario:** The market could continue to move sideways between 3347 and 3375. In this context, it is crucial to monitor the extremities of this range to detect a possible breakout. Avoid taking positions without clear confirmation of an exit from the range.

3. **Bearish scenario:** A break below support at 3347 could lead to a fall towards 3330. This scenario would be invalidated if the price rises above 3375, signalling a resumption of bullish strength. Caution is advised if the dollar continues to strengthen.

**Risk management advice:**

- Avoid overtrading:** On a neutral trend day, it's easy to get caught up in erratic movements. Limit the number of trades you make and wait for clear signals before committing yourself.

- Wait for confirmation:** Before taking a position, wait for solid confirmation in the form of breakouts from key levels or increased volumes. This will help you avoid false signals and improve your risk/reward ratio.

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