Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (11:56)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
Analysis of the forex market for the GBP/USD pair on 4 July 2025 reveals several key dynamics influenced by recent economic events.

### Technical Analysis :
- Opening and Closing: The pair opened the day at 1.36511 and closed slightly lower at 1.36380. This indicates moderate selling pressure throughout the session.
- High and Low: Movements between the high at 1.36812 and the low at 1.36345 show limited volatility, suggesting consolidation within a narrow range.
- Current Trend** : The trend appears to be downwards, indicated by the close below the opening level. The market could be in a correction phase after previous gains.

### Impact of Economic News :
1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo** : News of additional tariffs imposed by Trump could create risk aversion, negatively influencing GBP/USD as investors seek safe haven assets.
2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty** : Stronger-than-expected UK jobs data strengthens sterling, but uncertainty around future decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) could limit gains. This creates a contradictory dynamic where positive economic fundamentals are offset by political and monetary uncertainty.
3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open**: Although risk assets have advanced, low trading volumes may be distorting price movements, making current trends potentially misleading.

### Short Term Forecast :
- Positive scenario**: If the pound continues to be supported by solid economic data and the uncertainties surrounding the BoE dissipate, GBP/USD could rebound towards the resistance level of 1.36800 to 1.37000.
- Negative scenario**: An escalation in trade tensions or ambiguous communication from the BoE could accentuate the downward pressure, pushing the pair towards support at 1.36000.
- Potential Volatility**: Low volumes signal increased volatility at the opening of the next session, which could lead to sharp and unpredictable moves.

In conclusion, although the GBP/USD is currently in a correction phase, economic fundamentals remain solid, which could offer rebound opportunities if external uncertainties dissipate. Traders must remain vigilant to economic news and BoE statements in order to anticipate future movements.