Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (06:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
Analysis of the Forex market for the GBP/USD pair on 4 July 2025 shows several influential dynamics. Here is a detailed analysis:

### Current trend :
The GBP/USD pair fell slightly on the day, opening at 1.36511 and closing at 1.36380. This suggests short-term downward pressure, despite a high of 1.36812. The general trend seems to point to a correction against a backdrop of increased volatility.

### Impact of economic news :
1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo** :
- The new tariff measures announced by the Trump administration are likely to have contributed to increased uncertainty on global markets, affecting risky assets. This may have strengthened the US dollar as a safe haven, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty** :
- Strong UK employment data would normally support sterling, but the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy appears to be weighing more heavily. Investors may be concerned about ambiguous signals from the BoE regarding future rate hikes, which is contributing to the weakness of the pound.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open** :
- Although risky assets recorded gains, low trading volumes may indicate caution among investors, which could lead to erratic movements at Monday's open. This situation could also influence GBP/USD dynamics in the sessions ahead.

### Short-term forecasts :
- Bullish scenario**: If the BoE clarifies its stance with hawkish signals on interest rates, and if trade tensions ease, the pound could regain strength, pushing GBP/USD to retest resistance around 1.36812 and beyond.
- Bearish scenario**: If trade tensions intensify and uncertainty surrounding the BoE persists, the pair could continue to fall, testing short-term support around 1.36345. A break below this level could pave the way for further declines.

In summary, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by both external and internal factors, with bearish pressure dominant in the short term. Investors should keep a close eye on economic and political developments to assess the pair's future direction.