Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (01:02)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36380

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Context
The GBP/USD is a major currency pair that reflects the value of the pound sterling (GBP) against the US dollar (USD). The Forex market for this pair is influenced by various economic, political and social factors.

#### Performance of the Day
- Opening:** 1.36511
- Higher:** 1.36812
- Lowest:** 1.36345
- Closing:** 1.36380

The session of 4 July 2025 saw a slight fall in the GBP/USD pair, closing below its opening level. The intraday movement shows moderate volatility with a relatively limited range of fluctuation.

#### Impact of Economic News

1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo :**
- The new tariff measures announced by former President Trump are likely to have generated uncertainty in the markets, affecting investor confidence. Although the direct impact on GBP/USD is mixed, trade tensions may strengthen the US dollar as a safe haven, contributing to downward pressure on the pair.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty:**
- Strong UK employment data could initially have supported sterling. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy probably limited this positive impact. The BoE's reluctance to make a clear commitment on the path of interest rates could weigh on the pound.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open:**
- Gains in risk assets indicate some risk appetite among investors, but low trading volumes may lead to erratic and potentially biased movements when the market reopens. This could affect liquidity and, consequently, GBP/USD volatility in subsequent sessions.

#### Technical Analysis

- Current Trend:** The pair appears to be in a corrective phase, with slight downward pressure evident throughout the day. Short-term support and resistance levels could be tested as the market digests the economic news.

- Key Levels:**
- Support:** 1.36300 (close to the day's low)
- Resistance:** 1.36800 (close to the day's high)

#### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Bullish scenario:**
- If the BoE clarifies its monetary policy stance in favour of tightening, or if trade tensions ease, the pound could regain ground, retesting resistance levels around 1.36800.

2. **Cashier script:**
- Further uncertainty or an escalation in trade tensions could strengthen the US dollar, pushing GBP/USD towards lower support levels, potentially below 1.36300.

3. **Neutral scenario:**
- In the absence of any significant news, the pair could trade in a narrow range, hovering around current levels while awaiting clearer catalysts.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD market is currently influenced by complex economic and political factors. Traders need to keep a close eye on monetary and trade policy developments to navigate this volatile environment effectively.