Forex analysis - 2025-07-04 (20:03)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-04
Opening : 1.36511
Higher up: 1.36812
Below: 1.36345
Closing : 1.36530

Economic news :
Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo
GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty
Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open

Detailed analysis:
The full analysis of the Forex market for the GBP/USD pair on 4 July 2025 highlights several key elements that influence the movements of this currency pair. Here is a detailed analysis:

### Current trend
The GBP/USD pair showed slight volatility over the course of the day, opening at 1.36511, making a high of 1.36812, making a low of 1.36345, and closing slightly above the open at 1.36530. This indicates a relatively stable session with slight upward pressure.

### Impact of economic news

1. **Futures Slide On Latest Trump Tariff Salvo** : News on tariffs imposed by the Trump administration may have a significant impact on the currency market, notably by increasing uncertainty and favouring safe haven assets. This could put pressure on sterling if investors seek to reduce their exposure to riskier assets.

2. **GBP/USD Correction Deepens With Strong Jobs Data, BoE Uncertainty** : Strong jobs data is generally positive for a currency, as it suggests a growing economy, which could strengthen sterling. However, uncertainty surrounding decisions by the Bank of England (BoE) could dampen this optimism, creating increased volatility for GBP/USD. Investors could be waiting for clearer indications of the BoE's monetary policy intentions.

3. **Risk Assets Extend Gains but Low Volumes Could Skew Monday Open** : Gains from risky assets in a low-volume trading environment could lead to exaggerated price movements. This means that GBP/USD could see larger swings in the short term, especially if the market overreacts to economic or political news.

### Short-term forecasts

- Bullish scenario**: If UK economic data continues to surprise positively and the BoE adopts a more optimistic tone regarding the economic outlook, sterling could appreciate further. A break above resistance at 1.36812 could pave the way for further gains.

- Bearish scenario**: On the other hand, if uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies exacerbates fears of a trade war or if the BoE remains indecisive, the pound could come under pressure. A fall below support at 1.36345 could trigger a further downward correction.

- Volume influence**: Low trading volumes could lead to increased volatility, so traders should be cautious when opening positions, taking into account possible sudden movements.

In summary, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by a mixture of economic and political factors, with the potential for increased volatility in the short term. Investors should keep a close eye on economic developments and BoE statements to adjust their positions accordingly.