Forex analysis - 2025-07-01 (06:55)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-01
Opening : 1.37281
Higher up: 1.37487
Below: 1.37237
Closing : 1.37430

Economic news :
Dollar beaten down at month-end but now the real test begins
Global FX Market Summary: Federal Reserve, Geopolitical Events, Gold, Economic Data 30 June 2025
GBP/USD Edges Lower as UK GDP Impresses With 0.7% Gain in Q1

Detailed analysis:
**Comprehensive analysis of the GBP/USD Forex market**.

### Current trend
The GBP/USD pair showed a slight rise during the session of 1 July 2025, opening at 1.37281 and closing at 1.37430. Although the intraday variation was modest, the market reached a high of 1.37487, indicating some bullish pressure. However, the recent general trend seems to be influenced by a number of economic and geopolitical factors.

### Impact of Economic News
1. **The weakening of the US dollar at the end of June may have underpinned the slight rise in the GBP/USD pair. Investors probably adjusted their positions at the end of the month, leading to downward pressure on the dollar.

2. **Global FX Market Summary:** Geopolitical events and Federal Reserve decisions continue to play a crucial role. Expectations of future Fed actions, particularly on interest rates, influence the direction of the dollar and, consequently, GBP/USD.

3. **UK GDP growth:** The 0.7% gain in UK GDP in the first quarter provided underlying support for sterling. This positive economic performance could boost investor confidence in the UK economy, despite ongoing concerns about inflation and monetary policy.

### Short-Term Forecasts
There are several possible scenarios for future sessions:

1. **Bullish scenario:** If the pound continues to benefit from positive economic data and the Federal Reserve adopts a more accommodative stance, GBP/USD could continue to rise. Immediate resistance lies around 1.3750, and a breach of this level could open the way to 1.3800.

2. **Bearish scenario:** On the other hand, if geopolitical tensions intensify or if US economic data exceeds expectations, the dollar could strengthen, pushing GBP/USD towards support at 1.3700. A break below this level could signal further bearish pressure. A break below this level could signal further downward pressure.

3. **Neutral scenario:** The pair could also move in a narrow range if investors are waiting for clearer indications from political decision-makers or significant economic news.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by a complex mix of economic and geopolitical factors. Investors will need to keep a close eye on economic developments and central bank statements to assess the pair's future direction.