Forex analysis - 2025-07-01 (01:53)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-07-01
Opening : 1.37281
Higher up: 1.37405
Below: 1.37255
Closing : 1.37380

Economic news :
Global FX Market Summary: Federal Reserve, Geopolitical Events, Gold, Economic Data 30 June 2025
GBP/USD Edges Lower as UK GDP Impresses With 0.7% Gain in Q1
Dollar Drops Heavily Against Major Currencies

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Data for the day (1st July 2025) :
- Opening:** 1.37281
- Highest:** 1.37405
- Lowest:** 1.37255
- Closing:** 1.37380

#### Major Economic News :
1. **The Federal Reserve, geopolitical events, gold and economic data for 30 June 2025.
2. **GBP/USD down slightly despite impressive UK GDP growth of 0.71TP2Q in Q1.
3. **The US dollar is falling sharply against the major currencies.

#### Detailed Analysis :

##### Current Trend :
The GBP/USD pair fell slightly during the session, despite a general fall in the US dollar. This can be attributed to profit-taking or a muted reaction to the UK's economic results, although the latter were positive.

##### Impact of Economic News :
- UK GDP:** The 0.71TP2Q growth in the first quarter is a strong indicator of the UK's economic health, which could normally strengthen sterling. However, the muted market reaction may suggest that investors had already anticipated this data.
- The dollar's weakness, which has seen it fall against several major currencies, is generally favourable for the GBP/USD. However, the pair has not capitalised fully on this weakness, which could indicate that traders are cautious in the face of geopolitical uncertainties or monetary policy expectations.

##### Short Term Forecast :
1. **Bullish scenario:** If the pound manages to benefit further from dollar weakness and UK economic data continues to be positive, GBP/USD could test new highs above 1.3750.

2. **Bearish scenario:** If geopolitical uncertainties or statements from the Federal Reserve strengthen the dollar, or if less optimistic UK economic data emerges, the pair could fall back towards 1.3700.

3. **Neutral scenario:** The pair could continue to oscillate in a narrow range, with sideways movements, while awaiting new major economic or political indications.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD is currently showing some resilience despite conflicting influences. Traders should monitor economic and political developments to assess future trends.