Forex analysis - 2025-06-30 (05:56)

June 30, 2025

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-30
Opening : 1.37167
Higher up: 1.37303
Below: 1.37070
Closing : 1.37280

Economic news :
Monday open levels, indicative FX prices, 30 June 2025
Markets Wait For PCE Data
Major currencies not up to much to start the session

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Data
- Date:** 30 June 2025
- Open:** 1.37167
- Higher:** 1.37303
- Lowest:** 1.37070
- Closing:** 1.37280

#### Major Economic News
- **Markets Wait For PCE Data:** Investors are awaiting the publication of PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data, a key indicator of inflation in the United States.
- Major currencies not up to much to start the session:** The major currencies showed no significant movement at the start of the session, indicating a degree of stability or expectation on the part of investors.

#### Detailed Analysis

##### Current Trend
The GBP/USD pair showed a slight rise during the session of 30 June 2025, closing slightly above the opening level. The modest difference between the opening and closing levels, combined with the limited gap between the high and low, suggests relatively low volatility. This could indicate a consolidation or waiting phase in the market, probably due to the expectation of important economic data.

##### Impact of Economic News
Expectations surrounding US PCE data appear to be playing a crucial role in the pair's current momentum. PCE data is a preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, and its release could have a significant impact on monetary policy expectations. Higher than expected inflation could strengthen the US dollar due to the increased likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Fed, which could put downward pressure on GBP/USD. Conversely, weaker PCE data could weaken the dollar, offering potential support to sterling.

##### Short-Term Forecasts
1. **Bullish scenario:** If the PCE data shows lower inflation, this could lead to a fall in Fed rate hike expectations, weakening the dollar and pushing GBP/USD higher. Technical levels to watch include resistance around 1.37350, which represents a potential breakout point for a more sustained uptrend.

2. **Bearish scenario:** In the event of higher-than-expected PCE data, the pair could face increased selling pressure, testing support levels around 1.37000. A break below this level could pave the way for a more pronounced decline, depending on market expectations regarding future Fed action.

3. **Neutral scenario:** If PCE data is in line with expectations, it is possible that the pair will continue to consolidate in a narrow range, with traders waiting for further economic or political indications to initiate significant moves.

### Conclusion
The GBP/USD market currently appears to be on hold, with all eyes on US economic data. Traders should keep a close eye on economic releases and central bank statements to anticipate future moves. Key technical levels and reactions to economic data will guide short-term strategies.

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