Forex analysis - 2025-06-27 (14:30)

June 28, 2025

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-06-27
Opening : 1.37275
Higher up: 1.37524
Below: 1.36827
Closing : 1.37130

Economic news :
Markets Wait For PCE Data
Major currencies not up to much to start the session
GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness

Detailed analysis:
For a complete analysis of the GBP/USD forex market on 27 June 2025, let's look at the various aspects mentioned:

### Technical Analysis :

1. **Current trend:**
- Open:** 1.37275
- Closing:** 1.37130
- Highest:** 1.37524
- Lowest:** 1.36827

The GBP/USD pair fell slightly over the day, from 1.37275 at the open to 1.37130 at the close. Intraday movements show moderate volatility, with a high of 1.37524 and a low of 1.36827. This indicates downward pressure, despite an attempt at an intraday rise.

2. **General trend:**
The mention of the pair reaching 3-year highs suggests a recent uptrend. However, closing below the day's open indicates a potential slowdown or short-term correction.

### Impact of Economic News :

1. **Markets Wait For PCE Data:**
The market is awaiting the publication of data on the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, a key inflation indicator monitored by the Fed. Waiting for important data may lead to a degree of caution among traders, limiting significant movements until the publication.

2. **Major Currencies Not Up To Much To Start The Session :**
This suggests low volatility at the start of the session, probably due to a lack of major economic catalysts or a wait for PCE data.

3. **GBP/USD Surges to 3-Year Highs Amid Broad US Dollar Weakness :**
Widespread weakness in the US dollar has contributed to the recent rise in the GBP/USD pair. Factors such as expectations of a less aggressive monetary policy from the Fed may have weakened the dollar, helping the pound to rise.

### Short Term Forecast :

1. **Bullish scenario:**
If the PCE data indicate moderate inflation, this could reinforce the idea that the Fed will maintain an accommodative monetary policy, continuing to weaken the dollar and potentially pushing GBP/USD higher. A breach of the 1.37524 resistance level could pave the way for new highs.

2. **Cashier script:**
Conversely, if the PCE shows stronger-than-expected inflation, this could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Fed, supporting the dollar and exerting downward pressure on the GBP/USD. In that case, support at 1.36827 could be tested or even broken.

3. **Impact of Volatility:**
The release of important economic data could increase volatility, creating both opportunities and risks for traders. It is advisable to keep a close eye on key support and resistance levels.

In summary, the GBP/USD pair is in a critical phase, influenced by economic expectations and the performance of the US dollar. Traders should remain vigilant to economic developments and technical signals as they navigate this potentially volatile market.

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