Forex analysis - 2025-05-02 (19:02)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-05-02
Opening : 1.32713
Higher up: 1.33306
Below: 1.32604
Closing : 1.32640

Economic news :
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Strong NFP Justifies Cautious Fed
Markets React To Hints Of Trade Talks Between U.S. And China
Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls After China Hints At Trade Talks

Detailed analysis:
To carry out a complete analysis of the Forex market for GBP/USD on 2 May 2025, we need to look at a number of aspects, including price movements, economic news and short-term forecasts.

### Technical Analysis

1. **Price movements:**
- Opening:** 1.32713
- Higher:** 1.33306
- Lower:** 1.32604
- Closing:** 1.32640

The day saw a slight fall, with the close slightly below the opening price. The day's high of 1.33306 indicates that there was an attempt to rise, but it was not sustained, which could suggest bearish pressure or profit-taking after a recent rise.

2. **Current trend:**
- Closing below the opening price, combined with the fact that the day's low is close to the closing price, may indicate a short-term downtrend. However, the relatively narrow range of price movements suggests a degree of indecision in the market.

### Impact of Economic News

1. **NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) and Fed :**.
- The US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is a key indicator of the US economy. A strong NFP justifies a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve, which could keep the US dollar strong, putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.

2. **Trade talks between the United States and China:**
- The markets reacted positively to indications of trade talks between the United States and China. Such talks can increase risk appetite, which could favour the US dollar if investors perceive them as positive for the US economy.

### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Possible scenarios:**
- Bullish scenario:** If trade talks between the US and China progress positively, this could boost investor confidence and support sterling if risk appetite increases globally.
- Bearish scenario:** If the NFP is exceptionally strong, this could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes sooner than expected, strengthening the US dollar and putting further pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

2. **Factors to watch:**
- Future economic data:** Upcoming economic indicators, including UK PMIs and industrial production figures, will be crucial in determining the future direction of sterling.
- Fed comments:** Any indication of a change in monetary policy by the Fed could influence the pair's movements.

### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair appears to be in a phase of uncertainty with potential downward pressure, mainly due to a US dollar potentially strengthened by strong economic data. Investors should keep a close eye on economic and political developments, particularly around trade talks and central bank monetary policies.