Forex analysis - 2025-05-02 (03:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-05-02
Opening : 1.32713
Higher up: 1.33306
Below: 1.32604
Closing : 1.32640

Economic news :
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Strong NFP Justifies Cautious Fed
Markets React To Hints Of Trade Talks Between U.S. And China
Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls After China Hints At Trade Talks

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Date: 2025-05-02

**Market Data Summary:**
- Opening:** 1.32713
- Higher:** 1.33306
- Lower:** 1.32604
- Closing:** 1.32640

#### Major Economic News

1. **Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP):** The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report was strong, justifying a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve. A strong NFP may indicate a healthy US economy, potentially supporting the US dollar and putting downward pressure on GBP/USD.

2. **US-China Trade Talks:** Hints of trade talks between the US and China have emerged. This news may reinforce positive market sentiment, supporting risk assets and influencing the dollar.

3. **Market Reaction:** Futures markets trended higher ahead of the jobs data, partly due to indications of trade talks between the US and China.

#### Detailed Analysis

**Current trends:**
- The GBP/USD pair showed intraday volatility, peaking at 1.33306 before closing slightly lower at 1.32640. This close, slightly lower than the opening, suggests persistent downward pressure despite attempts to rebound during the day.

**Impact of Economic News:**
- A strong report increases the likelihood that the Fed will adopt a more cautious stance, which could strengthen the dollar. However, if the Fed remains cautious, this could limit the dollar's gains.
- Trade talks:** Talks between the US and China may improve global risk sentiment, which could temporarily weaken the dollar and support sterling if investors seek riskier assets.

**Short-term forecast:**
- Bullish scenario:** If trade talks progress positively and the Fed remains accommodative despite strong employment figures, the pound could see a strengthening, pushing GBP/USD towards the resistance level of 1.33306.
- Bearish scenario:** If US economic data continues to surprise on the upside and trade talks do not progress as hoped, the dollar could strengthen further, pushing the pair towards support at 1.32604 or even lower.

**Conclusion:**
The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by conflicting macroeconomic forces. Investors should keep a close eye on developments relating to trade talks and the Fed's monetary policy to assess the pair's future direction. Key levels to watch are resistance around 1.33306 and support near 1.32604.