Forex analysis - 2025-03-28 (12:50)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-03-28
Opening : 1.29506
Higher up: 1.29681
Below: 1.29220
Closing : 1.29380

Economic news :
USD Weakens Against JPY and EUR Amid Sluggish Consumer Spending
Markets Digest Sticky PCE Inflation
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar steady, gold holds firmer amid risk averse mood

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Context
The GBP/USD pair showed a slight decline during the session of 28 March 2025, closing at 1.29380, down from the opening of 1.29506. The market recorded a high of 1.29681 and a low of 1.29220. Volatility remained moderate, reflecting some uncertainty in the market. The market recorded a high of 1.29681 and a low of 1.29220. Volatility remained moderate, reflecting some uncertainty in the market.

#### Current Trend
The current trend in the GBP/USD pair is slightly bearish, marked by the close below the open. This dynamic could be influenced by recent economic data and overall market conditions. The pair appears to be in a consolidation phase, with investors uncertain about the future direction of the market.

#### Impact of Economic News
1. **Weakening of the US Dollar** : The dollar weakened against the Japanese yen (JPY) and the euro (EUR) on the back of a fall in US consumer spending. This generally has a bullish impact on the GBP/USD pair, but the lack of a significant rise points to relative strength in sterling or other offsetting factors.

2. **Persistent PCE inflation** : Inflation as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index remains high, which could limit the Federal Reserve's (Fed) ability to cut interest rates. This may have a stabilising effect on the dollar, limiting the rise in GBP/USD.

3. **Aversive Risk Sentiment**: Continued aversive risk sentiment, as evidenced by the stability of the dollar and the strength of gold, indicates that investors are seeking safe haven assets. This could dampen demand for riskier currencies such as sterling.

#### Short-Term Forecasts
- Bullish scenario**: If the dollar continues to weaken and sterling benefits from favourable economic data or an improvement in investor sentiment, the pair could rally towards resistance at 1.29681, or even beyond.

- Bearish scenario**: If the dollar strengthens, due for example to better-than-expected US economic data or an anticipated interest rate hike by the Fed, the pair could test support at 1.29220 or even fall below it.

- Neutral scenario**: The pair could continue to consolidate in a narrow range if macroeconomic conditions remain stable and no significant news disrupts the market.

To sum up, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by a weakening dollar and risk-averse market sentiment. The next few sessions are likely to be driven by economic news, particularly inflation and monetary policy. Traders should keep a close eye on economic announcements and central bank statements to adjust their positions.