Forex analysis - 2025-02-26 (06:49)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-02-26
Opening : 1.26717
Higher up: 1.26776
Below: 1.26353
Closing : 1.26378

Economic news :
GBP/USD Forecast Turns Negative Amid US Inflation, Tariffs
Dollar Weakens Despite Hawkish Fed And Fresh Tariff Warnings
World Markets Trade On A Mixed Note

Detailed analysis:
**Full analysis of the GBP/USD Forex market**.

**Market context:**

The forex market is influenced by various economic and geopolitical factors. The GBP/USD pair, in particular, is sensitive to economic developments in the United Kingdom and the United States, as well as to the monetary policies of their respective central banks.

**Current trend:**

The GBP/USD pair fell slightly during the session analysed. Opening at 1.26717 and closing at 1.26378 indicate moderate downward pressure over the course of the day. The fact that the day's low (1.26353) was close to the closing level suggests that selling pressure persisted until the end of the session.

**Impact of economic news:**

1. **US Inflation and Tariffs:** Negative forecasts for the GBP/USD appear to be influenced by concerns over US inflation and new tariff threats. High inflation can strengthen a country's currency if it causes the central bank to raise interest rates. However, tariffs can have a negative effect on economic growth, which could weaken the US dollar in the long term.

2. **Dollar Weakening Despite Hawkish Fed:** Although the Fed is adopting a "hawkish" stance (favouring higher interest rates to fight inflation), the dollar is weakening. This could be due to uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs or other geopolitical factors. A weaker dollar could help limit the decline in the GBP/USD pair.

3. **World Markets Mixed:** With global markets mixed, this reflects a general uncertainty that may influence currency movements. Investors may be cautious, which may lead to increased volatility in Forex trading.

**Short-term forecasts:**

1. **Bearish scenario:** If selling pressure persists, the GBP/USD could retest support near the 1.26300 level. A break below this level could pave the way for a fall towards 1.26000.

2. **Bullish scenario:** If the dollar continues to weaken despite a hawkish Fed, it is possible that GBP/USD could rebound above 1.26500, with resistance to watch around 1.26750.

3. **Factors to Watch:** Traders should watch for further economic announcements, including US employment and inflation data, as well as any monetary policy statements from the Bank of England. Geopolitical developments, including tariff talks, may also influence the pair's future direction.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is currently under downward pressure, but future movements will depend largely on the economic and geopolitical factors mentioned. Traders should remain vigilant and ready to react to new market developments.