Forex analysis - 2025-02-26 (03:54)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-02-26
Opening : 1.26717
Higher up: 1.26776
Below: 1.26518
Closing : 1.26530

Economic news :
GBP/USD Forecast Turns Negative Amid US Inflation, Tariffs
Dollar Weakens Despite Hawkish Fed And Fresh Tariff Warnings
World Markets Trade On A Mixed Note

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Context
On 26 February 2025, the GBP/USD pair showed moderate volatility, opening at 1.26717 and closing just below 1.26530. Fluctuations during the day were relatively limited, with a high of 1.26776 and a low of 1.26518.

#### Current Trend
The GBP/USD pair appears to be in a phase of downward correction. The close below the open indicates persistent selling pressure, despite the weakness of the US dollar. This movement could be a reaction to recent economic news and the uncertainties surrounding tariff policies.

#### Impact of Economic News
1. **US Inflation and Tariffs** : Concerns about US inflation and warnings of new tariffs created an uncertain environment for the dollar. While this generally weakens the dollar, the GBP/USD pair has not benefited from this weakness due to specific concerns in the UK.

2. **Fed Hawkish**: Despite a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, the dollar showed signs of weakness, which could be attributed to market scepticism about the real impact of the Fed's future policies.

3. **Global Mixed Markets**: Global markets moving on a mixed note reflect a general aversion to risk, which may negatively influence sterling as a riskier asset relative to the dollar.

#### Short-Term Forecasts
1. **Bullish scenario**: If trade tensions ease and UK economic data show signs of recovery, the pair could rebound towards resistance levels around 1.2700. The key support to watch would then be the 1.2650 level.

2. **Bearish scenario**: In the event of further negative economic or geopolitical news, selling pressure could intensify, pushing the pair towards the 1.2600 support level. Closes below this level could signal a more pronounced downtrend.

3. **Factors to Watch** : Investors should keep a close eye on upcoming economic announcements, including UK PMIs and US employment figures, which could influence the pair's movements.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by a mixture of economic and political factors, creating uncertainty in short-term forecasts. Traders will need to keep a close eye on economic developments and political announcements to adjust their positions accordingly.