Forex analysis - 2025-02-25 (20:55)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-02-25
Opening : 1.26177
Higher up: 1.26777
Below: 1.26054
Closing : 1.26686

Economic news :
GBP/USD Forecast Turns Negative Amid US Inflation, Tariffs
Dollar Weakens Despite Hawkish Fed And Fresh Tariff Warnings
World Markets Trade On A Mixed Note

Detailed analysis:
### Complete Forex Market Analysis - GBP/USD

#### Market Context

The GBP/USD showed notable volatility during the session of 25 February 2025, with an opening at 1.26177, a high at 1.26777, a low at 1.26054 and a close at 1.26686. These movements reflect a slight appreciation in sterling against the US dollar over the course of the day.

#### Current Trend

The current trend appears to be slightly upwards, with the stock closing close to its high for the day. This trend could be attributed to a weakening US dollar despite a potentially restrictive monetary policy from the Fed, as suggested by the economic news.

#### Impact of Economic News

1. **US inflation and tariffs** : The negative forecast for GBP/USD is partly due to the impact of US inflation and new tariff threats. This could traditionally strengthen the dollar, but in this context the dollar has weakened, probably due to overvaluation or other offsetting macroeconomic factors.

2. **Weak Dollar despite Fed**: The US dollar weakened even with hawkish signals from the Fed, which could indicate that markets have already incorporated these expectations or that other factors, such as trade tensions, are weighing more heavily.

3. **Global Mixed Markets**: Global markets are moving in a mixed fashion, which could reflect global uncertainty, affecting liquidity and volatility in currency pairs such as GBP/USD.

#### Short-Term Forecasts

1. **Bullish scenario**: If market sentiment remains in favour of a strong pound or if the dollar continues to weaken, the GBP/USD could retest the 1.26777 resistance level or even move above it.

2. **Bearish scenario**: On the other hand, if further positive US economic data emerges or if trade tensions intensify, strengthening the dollar, the pair could return to support at 1.26054.

3. **Neutral scenario**: In a consolidation scenario, the GBP/USD could move sideways between the current support and resistance levels of 1.26054 and 1.26777, pending further economic or political catalysts.

#### Conclusion

The GBP/USD pair is currently being influenced by complex macroeconomic factors, including US inflation, pricing policies and the Fed's monetary policy. Traders should keep a close eye on these developments, as well as future economic data from both sides of the Atlantic, to better anticipate the pair's future movements. Cautious risk management is advisable, given the current volatility and global economic uncertainties.