Forex analysis - 2025-02-25 (19:59)

Forex data GBP/USD
Date : 2025-02-25
Opening : 1.26177
Higher up: 1.26777
Below: 1.26054
Closing : 1.26640

Economic news :
GBP/USD Forecast Turns Negative Amid US Inflation, Tariffs
Dollar Weakens Despite Hawkish Fed And Fresh Tariff Warnings
World Markets Trade On A Mixed Note

Detailed analysis:
The analysis of the Forex market for the GBP/USD pair on 25 February 2025 presents an interesting picture influenced by a number of economic and geopolitical factors. Here is a detailed analysis based on the data provided:

### Current trend
The GBP/USD pair showed some volatility over the course of the day, opening at 1.26177, reaching a high of 1.26777 and a low of 1.26054, before finally closing at 1.26640. This fluctuation suggests a moderate uptrend, although the volatility indicates underlying uncertainty in the market.

### Impact of Economic News
1. **Negative outlook for GBP/USD due to Inflation and US Tariffs:** Concerns about US inflation and fresh warnings about tariffs could weaken the US dollar. However, this could also create downward pressure on sterling if the UK economy is seen as vulnerable to the same inflationary and tariff factors.

2. **Despite an aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the dollar appears to be weakening. This could be due to other global economic factors or a perception that the Fed may be reaching a plateau in its rate hike cycle. This offers temporary support to sterling, contributing to the rise seen towards the close.

3. **Global markets on a mixed note:** Global markets are mixed, reflecting global economic uncertainty which could lead to increased volatility in Forex. Investors could be looking for safe-haven assets, which could influence capital flows and, consequently, exchange rates.

### Short-Term Forecasts
- Bullish scenario:** If concerns about US inflation persist without significantly affecting the UK economy, GBP/USD could continue to receive support, potentially heading for new highs above 1.26777, especially if the dollar continues to weaken.

- Bearish scenario:** On the other hand, if trade tensions intensify or disappointing UK economic data is released, this could reverse the trend and push the pair towards lower support levels, potentially around 1.26054 or below.

- Neutral scenario:** The pair could also consolidate in a narrow range if investors expect more clarity on monetary and fiscal policies on both sides of the Atlantic.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair is currently influenced by complex factors, and traders should keep a close eye on economic and political developments to adjust their strategy accordingly.